Weak-kneed responses to attacks on Baltic cables risk allowing the Russia-China axis to conduct free target practice against NATO critical infrastructure, promoting the two countries’ proficiency, interoperability and lethality.
Thanks to this opportunity, Russian crews and their masters ashore will become much better at crippling critical infrastructure connecting NATO states just as Europe is preparing for a defensive war against Moscow’s aggression. And Chinese planners and crews will similarly become more adept at waging this form of hybrid warfare in the Indo-Pacific.
The presence of China-flagged vessels near disruptions to undersea cable infrastructure in Europe in 2024 raises questions about whether Beijing’s involvement was accidental, surveillance-related or part of a coordinated effort. That Beijing calls itself Moscow’s ‘no-limits’ partner suggest its involvement in the suspected sabotage was plausible, if not probable. Even if China wasn’t involved, it will be eager and able to learn from Russia’s experience.