correct me if I’m wrong here, but that 11%, to roll with your example, would need to be recovered immediately for that math. Like every month it doesn’t go back up… that’s compounding the lost opportunity. And if 2008 is anything to go by… it’s not just going to go back up, it’s going to take time.
like, if you expect a certain amount of growth, it’s unlikely you’ll get the 11% plus that “normal” growth back.
Over 30 years with the ups and downs it averages 10-12% a year. So while this year will probably be bad, next year or the year after will probably be exceptionally good.
That’s not how the markets necessarily work. A bad year this year doesn’t necessarily mean an extra special year next year.
I guess the problem I’m pointing out is that it’s unlikely to fully regain the lost value fast enough to make up for the compound value that would have existed.
For people just starting out, it puts a significant cramp on their ability to gain capital. There may not be any better options, but it hurts people and in ways that won’t necessarily be made whole.
It has “returned to the mean” as far back as we can look. It doesn’t mean a special year, but as best we can see, it will eventually return to that mean.
It actually matters less to people just starting. At that point it’s more about the number of stocks you buy than the value of them. The value matters later when you have a ton and your contributions are tiny compared to the actual swings.
correct me if I’m wrong here, but that 11%, to roll with your example, would need to be recovered immediately for that math. Like every month it doesn’t go back up… that’s compounding the lost opportunity. And if 2008 is anything to go by… it’s not just going to go back up, it’s going to take time.
like, if you expect a certain amount of growth, it’s unlikely you’ll get the 11% plus that “normal” growth back.
Over 30 years with the ups and downs it averages 10-12% a year. So while this year will probably be bad, next year or the year after will probably be exceptionally good.
That’s the problem with averages.
That’s not how the markets necessarily work. A bad year this year doesn’t necessarily mean an extra special year next year.
I guess the problem I’m pointing out is that it’s unlikely to fully regain the lost value fast enough to make up for the compound value that would have existed.
For people just starting out, it puts a significant cramp on their ability to gain capital. There may not be any better options, but it hurts people and in ways that won’t necessarily be made whole.
It has “returned to the mean” as far back as we can look. It doesn’t mean a special year, but as best we can see, it will eventually return to that mean.
It actually matters less to people just starting. At that point it’s more about the number of stocks you buy than the value of them. The value matters later when you have a ton and your contributions are tiny compared to the actual swings.