

That’s assuming the key and message are entirely independent. If you or the recipient isthe type of person or doing the types of things that would attract surveillance from a nation state (because realistically that’s the one of the only scenarios where non-esoteric privacy practices might not cut it), it’s not unrealistic that they’d intercept both your digital and physical mail and would be able to correlate them. At least with public key encryption, the private key is never actually in transit.
Fedora Workstation has been really good in my experience. The available software is shockingly up to date and I haven’t run into much breakage of any kind in the year or so I’ve been using it across 2 systems (despite my best efforts every few months when the urge to tinker hits me). I do occasionally run into issues caused by the default SELinux policies, but they’re not especially difficult to work around if you’re comfortable using the terminal.
I do share your sentiment about the AUR - I definitely miss it at times. That said, Flatpaks and the fact that pre-built RPMs are so commonplace have both softened the blow a lot.